Occam’s – Should You Try Timing to Avoid Bad Markets?
Everyone likes the markets when stocks are going up. We’re all getting the returns that we are “supposed” to be receiving for putting our money at risk. Naturally, we aren’t big fans of the market when stocks start falling. Unfortunately, stocks are “supposed” to go up and down – a lot. The financial markets are based on the relationship between risk and return. We wouldn’t be able to harvest the long-term returns we expect without the risk. And, well, this is what risk looks like. Looking at the S&P 500 Index, this past quarter has been the worst in about a decade, and the second worst since the end of the 2008 financial crisis. It’s also only the 3rd quarter since the 2008 financial crisis with a return worse than -10%. For what it’s worth, which isn’t a whole lot, in both other cases the S&P 500 was up by more than 10% the next two consecutive quarters. However, what we really care about is what is going to happen next this time around. Does this ugly past quarter presage an extended downturn, or was it just a bad quarter? Is this bull market, which has been one of the […]
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